Zimbabwe’s 2024/25 maize recovery

This agricultural season tells a tale of dramatic recovery following Southern Africa's worst drought in recent history. The 2023/24 summer rainfall season, characterised by El Niño conditions and a devastating mid-season drought, forced regional heads of state to declare emergencies.

South Africa lost about 20% of its crop, Zambia 50% and Zimbabwe recording a devastating 60% loss. Zimbabwe's maize yield collapsed to just 634,699 tonnes as a result.

The 2024/25 La Niña season brought higher rainfall and significant recovery in Zimbabwe, though projections vary considerably depending on the source.

Government projections: According to the Government's Crops, Livestock and Fisheries Report second round 2025, Zimbabwe has a projected yield of 2.3 million tonnes, potentially the fourth-largest harvest in the country's history.

International assessment: However, the World Food Programme presents a more cautious outlook, noting that "Zimbabwe's 2024/25 agricultural season was marked by uneven rainfall distribution, with southern regions receiving above-average precipitation while northern and eastern areas faced delayed and erratic rains." According to SADC and FAO reports cited by WFP, maize production is expected to remain 10-15% below national requirements due to poor rainfall distribution and prolonged dry spells, particularly affecting smallholder farmers. This would translate to approximately 1.9-2.0 million tonnes.

According to another source, the Pretoria-based unit of the USDA, recent data suggests a yield of 1.3 million tonnes. "This recovery is primarily driven by improved weather conditions and an increase in the area that farmers managed to plant for maize."

Food security implications

The divergence in these projections has significant implications for Zimbabwe's food security planning. The country consumes 2.2 million tonnes of maize annually - 1.8 million tonnes for food and 400,000 tonnes for livestock feed.

Under the government's optimistic scenario, Zimbabwe would achieve near self-sufficiency in maize. However, the WFP assessment suggests the country will remain a net importer, requiring substantial imports to meet domestic consumption needs.

Last year, Zimbabwe accounted for 56% of South Africa's maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes. Whilst Zimbabwe's maize import demand on the back of a higher yield will be smaller, it will still be substantial. Zambia this season will become an exporter again.

The regional recovery story extends beyond Zimbabwe. According to agricultureportal.co.za, "in the last marketing year, South Africa supplied nearly all of Zimbabwe's maize imports. However, in the 2025-26 marketing year, there may be some changes, with Zambia becoming an exporter again. Zambia, the second largest maize producer in the Southern Africa region, has seen a recovery in its 2024-25 maize production, now estimated at 3.66 million tonnes, up from 1.5 million tonnes in the previous season, according to Zambia's government data."

"Similarly to Zimbabwe, and South Africa, this increase in the harvest is due to favourable weather conditions and decent area plantings. The harvest is underway in the country. This means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize, as its domestic maize consumption is about 2.8 million tonnes, far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3.66 million tonnes."

Food security conditions remain the Government's priority, particularly given the historical reliance on international assistance. During lean season months in recent years, western donors such as USAID have funded World Food Programme interventions that have played crucial roles in stabilising food security across the region.

Despite the recovery, fundamental challenges remain. The area planted to maize increased to 1.84 million hectares, surpassing the national target of 1.8 million hectares. However, some 16,547 hectares were planted late in the season (after January 2025), potentially affecting yields in those areas.

More critically, irrigation development continues to lag significantly. Zimbabwe currently has 217,000 hectares of functional irrigation against a target of 496,000 hectares. The report emphasises the need to "further incentivise the private sector to invest in this important sub-sector, so the target of 50,000 hectares annually can be achieved." Of the targeted 496,000 hectares, some 350,000 hectares are designated for summer cereal production.

The uncertain maize projections underscore Zimbabwe's continued vulnerability to weather patterns. As the government report notes, "Zimbabwe must transition from intermittent, weather-dependent food production to sustained, perennial food security. To achieve this, it is imperative to accelerate climate-resilient agricultural practices at both the household and national levels."

This challenge becomes more pressing given evolving international assistance patterns. With the US Government cutting aid budgets, the traditional WFP safety net may be less reliable. Humanitarian efforts for the current season remain underfunded, with only 35% of required agricultural recovery financing secured, according to OCHA assessments.

Looking forward

While the projected maize yield offers promise, the season's erratic rainfall in some areas highlights the urgent need for agricultural transformation. African countries, particularly those in drought-prone regions, must accelerate investments in irrigation infrastructure, climate-resilient seed varieties, and diversified farming systems to reduce dependence on unpredictable rainfall patterns.