Zimbabwe faces challenging 2025-26 rainfall season

Delayed start, regional variations expected

The Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department has released its national climate outlook for the upcoming 2025-26 rainfall season, painting a picture of significant challenges and regional variations that will require careful planning and adaptive strategies across the country.

A season of two halves

The forecast reveals a season characterised by stark contrasts, with a delayed and erratic start giving way to more favourable conditions later in the season. According to the meteorological analysis, the upcoming rainfall season will be heavily influenced by a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) trend, while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral.

The most immediate concern is the projected dry start to the season. October and November 2025 are expected to receive below-normal rainfall across the country, potentially creating significant challenges for early planting and agricultural planning. This dry phase is anticipated to persist through the traditional season onset period, with normal rainfall patterns not expected to establish until December.

Regional divide, north vs south

Perhaps the most striking aspect of the forecast is the pronounced north-south rainfall distribution pattern, particularly during the critical October-December period. Northern provinces, including all Mashonaland regions, are likely to experience normal to below-normal rainfall accumulation during the early season. This presents particular challenges for these traditionally productive agricultural areas.

In contrast, southern and western regions, encompassing Matabeleland provinces, Masvingo, and much of Midlands, are anticipated to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the same period. This regional variation will require differentiated approaches to agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.

Seasonal progression and outlook

The forecast shows more optimistic prospects as the core season progresses. From November through February, the likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall increases significantly for most of the country. However, the meteorological department warns of a potential return to drier conditions in northern areas during the final phase of the season (January-March 2026), when these regions may once again experience normal to below-normal rainfall.

The December to February period emerges as the most promising, with increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall across the entire country. This period should provide the moisture needed for crop development, assuming successful establishment during the challenging early season.

Temperature patterns add complexity

Alongside rainfall variations, temperature patterns will add another layer of complexity to the season. October 2025 is expected to be particularly warm, followed by above-normal temperatures in November. December, however, is forecast to experience cooler than average maximum temperatures, which could benefit crop development if adequate rainfall materialises.

Risk management imperative

The erratic nature of the forecast season presents substantial risks that extend beyond simple rainfall deficits. The meteorological department specifically warns of prolonged dry spells after planting, violent storms, flash floods, and the potential for tropical cyclones. This combination of risks requires comprehensive preparedness across multiple sectors.

The intra-seasonal variability poses particular challenges for farmers, who must navigate not only the delayed season onset but also the potential for extreme weather events once the rains do arrive. The contrast between dry conditions in October-November and potentially above-normal rainfall later in the season could create rapid transitions that test infrastructure and response capabilities.

Comprehensive response strategy

The meteorological department has outlined a multi-faceted response strategy addressing various sectors and stakeholders:

Water Resources Management emerges as a critical priority, with emphasis on robust water harvesting and conservation programs. Pre-season dredging and strategic dam level management are recommended to balance drought preparedness with flood control capabilities.

Agricultural Adaptation will require flexible planting strategies that account for the delayed season onset while positioning for potential heavy rains later in the season. Irrigation strategies and drought-resistant crop varieties may prove essential for northern regions facing extended dry conditions.

Ongoing monitoring

Recognising the inherent uncertainty in long-range forecasting, the Meteorological Services Department emphasises that predictions will be updated monthly starting at the end of October 2025.

Seasonal forecasts serve as planning tools rather than precise predictions, particularly for short-term events like dry spells and the actual onset of seasonal rains.

Daily weather forecasts and 10-day weather bulletins will continue to provide more immediate guidance, capturing short-term variations that seasonal forecasts cannot predict.

As Zimbabwe prepares for this potentially challenging season, the emphasis on both drought preparedness and flood response capabilities reflects the complex reality of climate variability in the region. The coming months will test the country's resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of increasingly complex seasonal patterns.