Zimbabwe braces for mixed weather outlook as 2025 approaches

Zimbabwe faces a complex weather forecast heading into early 2025, with varying rainfall patterns across the country and the potential emergence of La Niña conditions, according to the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) report.

While parts of the country received significant rainfall in November 2024, particularly in central, eastern, southeastern, and northwestern regions, many areas are still awaiting substantial precipitation. The country experienced above-average temperatures in November, with readings 1 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than normal across multiple regions.

Global temperatures for January to October 2024 were the warmest on record with 2024 almost certainly becoming the warmest year on record, according to the report.

The outlook for early 2025 shows promise, with forecasts indicating a "slight to moderate" chance of above-average rainfall across Zimbabwe in January. This could bring relief to farmers who have already begun planting their summer season maize and soyabeans  under mostly favourable conditions. The government has implemented subsidy support to boost production outcomes.

However, challenges remain from previous weather patterns. The 2023/24 drought has impacted livestock and reduced available draught power for the current planting season. The Kariba Dam's critically low water levels have led to extensive power cuts, affecting irrigation capabilities and industrial activities.

Looking ahead, meteorological models predict the emergence of La Niña conditions between November 2024 and January 2025, with a 59% probability. Historically, La Niña episodes typically bring wetter and cooler conditions to Zimbabwe during the December-February season.

While tropical cyclone Chido recently affected Mayotte and Mozambique, its impact on Zimbabwe was minimal. However, the 2024/25 tropical cyclone season is expected to be normal to above-normal, potentially affecting eastern areas of the country.

Based on historical record, La Niña episodes are typically associated with wetter than average conditions in Zimbabwe during the December-January-February (DJF) season. La Niña events are also associated with cooler than average conditions across Zimbabwe during the DJF season.

* The report, which combines data from multiple sources including NOAA, NASA, and USDA, provides a comprehensive view of Zimbabwe's climate situation as the nation navigates through these weather challenges while supporting its agricultural sector.